Ethereum is staring down the most important price test it has faced in months. On Tuesday, the second-largest cryptocurrency slid toward $2,000 after hotter-than-expected US inflation data rattled financial markets — and while fund investors are heading for the exit, the people who actually lock up their ether are refusing to budge. That split, between sellers in the funds and holders on the network, is the story of Ethereum right now.
The inflation print that changed the mood
The trigger was Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index report for October. Headline inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month, above economists’ forecast of 0.3%, and core inflation — which strips out food and energy — rose 0.3% against an expected 0.2%. It was the third consecutive month of 0.3% core readings, and there was no annual figure at all: last year’s government shutdown left October 2025 prices uncollected, so the usual year-on-year comparison could not be calculated.
The timing made it worse. Just hours before the release, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told an audience in London that another core reading of 0.3% or higher could prompt the Fed to consider a larger rate rise in December. “In that case, I believe a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” Waller said. October’s print hit precisely that threshold.
Markets reacted fast. According to CME FedWatch data, traders were pricing an 88% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s 8–9 December meeting, with roughly a 12–15% chance of a half-point move — and a near-certainty of some increase at all. The Fed currently holds its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00%, after raising it by a quarter point in September and holding steady in October. The December decision will have to be made without November’s inflation figures, which arrive on 10 December, after the meeting.
Bitcoin fell to around $73,500 in the hours after the release, its lowest since August, before recovering toward $74,000. Ethereum took the harder hit, dropping nearly 5% at its worst to around $2,028, with Solana down about 5.6% to roughly $82 and XRP sliding around 3% to $1.06. The total crypto market cap slipped to about $2.57 trillion.
The ETF exodus keeps growing
The inflation shock landed on a market already bleeding institutional money. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $184.6 million in net outflows on Monday 9 November — their largest daily outflow since early October, according to SoSoValue data — extending a losing streak that has now run for six straight weeks. The previous week alone saw about $365 million leave the ether funds.
Bitcoin’s funds are under the same pressure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Monday, and roughly $1.5 billion over the past six trading sessions. November’s outflows had already reached $1.48 billion through 9 November, according to CoinGlass, and for the year as a whole, Bitcoin ETFs now sit at $1.1 billion in net withdrawals — a sharp reversal from roughly $25 billion of inflows in each of 2024 and 2025.
The biggest name in the room is feeling it most. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $213 million leave on Monday, its seventh straight day of outflows, taking its losses since 30 October to $1.66 billion, according to Farside Investors. Its Ethereum fund, ETHA, lost another $119 million in the same session. BlackRock describes the transfers as routine fund management driven by investor redemptions, not a directional bet against crypto — but the direction of the money is unmistakable.
Leverage flushed out, again
The selling was amplified by leveraged traders, just as it was on Monday, when more than $1 billion in positions was liquidated across the market. Ethereum bore the brunt this time: about $462 million in ETH positions was liquidated in 24 hours, with roughly $425 million of that in long positions — traders betting on prices rising. Over 8–9 November, the total came to about $432 million, the largest Ethereum liquidation wave since August.
The derivatives market shows how thoroughly the speculative froth has been cleared. Crypto analyst Arab Chain, using Binance data, found that Ethereum’s 30-day rolling open interest Z-score had fallen to minus 2.87 — a reading seen only about once a year. Open interest stood at about $5.24 billion against a 30-day average of $5.85 billion. Arab Chain cautioned that it would be prudent to wait for signs of demand before attempting to buy, noting that falling open interest alongside falling prices can simply reflect positions being closed rather than a wave of new short bets.
The stakers who won’t sell
Here is where Ethereum’s story diverges from a simple sell-off. While fund investors withdraw, the people who stake ether — locking it up to secure the network — are holding on.
On 11 October, about 457,840 ETH was waiting in the queue to leave staking. By 9 November, that figure had collapsed by nearly 99% to just 5,061 ETH. It has since rebounded to roughly 66,000 ETH, according to ValidatorQueue, but that remains about 86% below October’s level. Meanwhile, around 44.5 million ETH — about 36.4% of circulating supply — remains staked.
Large holders are active too, just not in the direction the price suggests. Santiment recorded more than 630 daily stETH whale transactions worth at least $100,000 in early November, the highest sustained activity since April. And BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate holder of ether, kept buying through the slide: in a filing on 9 November, it reported holdings of 6,070,092 ETH — about 4.97% of total supply — after adding 9,587 ETH in the week. More than 5.2 million of those coins are staked, with projected annualised staking rewards of about $309 million at a 2.65% yield.
Even so, the buying has not stopped the slide. Ethereum closed at 0.0284 BTC on 8 November, its weakest reading against Bitcoin since July, and supply is still growing: roughly 122.2 million ETH now exist, up from about 120.7 million in October 2025. As Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has noted, the fee burn was never a price floor.
What analysts are watching
The $2,000 level is now the line traders are watching. FXStreet’s analysis warns that Ethereum could fall to $1,970 after breaching the $2,100 support, while a sustained recovery above $2,200 would strengthen the case that the worst is over. The staking data offers the bull case: a growing staked supply could provide support if investor demand returns. The bear case is simpler: continued ETF outflows, weaker staking entries and more forced liquidations could overwhelm that support and leave $2,000 exposed.
For now, Ethereum is caught between two forces pulling in opposite directions. On one side, hot inflation, a hawkish Fed and six weeks of ETF redemptions. On the other, a staking base that has barely flinched and a corporate buyer closing in on 5% of all ether in existence. Which side wins will be decided at $2,000.
What to watch next
The $2,000 level. A clean break below it opens the way toward $1,970 and the low $1,900s; holding it keeps the recovery case alive.
Thursday’s ETF flow data. Another week of heavy redemptions would confirm institutional selling is still the dominant force in this market.
The Fed’s December meeting, 8–9 December. With a hike now near-certain, the question is whether it is 25 or 50 basis points — and Waller’s threshold has already been met once.
The staking queue. If the exit queue starts climbing again toward October’s levels, the holders’ resolve is cracking. If it stays low, the floor is firmer than the price suggests.
Ethereum’s price is falling, but its network is not emptying. That is the tension to watch — and $2,000 is where it gets resolved.
This post is for information only and is not financial advice. Figures are as reported by FXStreet, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Blockonomi, SoSoValue, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, Santiment and BitMine’s SEC filing on 9–11 November 2026. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile — do your own research before making investment decisions.
