Bitcoin has fallen below $71,000 for the first time since August, Ethereum is clinging to $2,000, and the market’s mood has tipped from fear into extreme fear. The question now dividing analysts is not whether this is a correction — that much is settled — but how much further it runs before buyers step back in. Some see a bottom forming near current levels. Others see another 10% to go.
The numbers tell the story of a market losing its footing. Bitcoin traded around $70,834 on Friday morning, down 3.8% in 24 hours and 6.5% over the week, and more than 19% below where it stood in early October. Ethereum fell 2.1% to about $2,007, its lowest since mid-August, with a weekly loss above 10%. XRP slipped to around $1.03 and Solana to roughly $81. The total crypto market cap has shrunk to about $2.42 trillion, down more than 5% in a day.
The levels everyone is watching
Technically, the damage is significant. Bitcoin has lost its 200-day moving average, near $73,137, a line that has acted as a dividing line between bull and bear phases in past cycles. Popular analyst Ali Martinez, who has followed this slide closely, put it plainly: “The level I’m watching now is $73,100. Reclaiming it could keep recovery hopes alive. But if BTC remains below it, the correction could deepen.”
Below current prices, the next supports are clustered tightly. Analysts at Wintermute, the trading firm, see $68,000 as the next level if $70,000 gives way. Technical analysis published by CoinRoop points to the 200-week exponential moving average near $69,000 as the first key support, with a decisive break exposing a downside target of $65,700. On the other side, resistance sits between $76,700 and $82,000, where a large concentration of sell orders waits — a breakout above that zone, the same analysis suggests, could open the way toward $87,000.
The betting markets are leaning bearish, too. On Polymarket, traders give a 65.5% chance that Bitcoin touches $70,000 at some point in November, and price the odds of it touching $67,500 at 78% and $65,000 at 54%. The median forecast for Bitcoin’s price on 14 November is around $69,032.
The oversold argument — and why it may not be enough
One widely watched signal suggests the market is stretched to the downside. Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) — a momentum gauge that flags when an asset has fallen unusually fast — has dropped below 30 for the first time in months. In past cycles, that has often preceded a bounce. But as analyst Uncle Winston noted in research published on 12 November, history is less encouraging than the textbook suggests: in eight of the last ten instances of Bitcoin hitting these oversold levels, prices fell further over the following month. Breaking below the 200-day average has historically been followed by a median further drop of more than 11% within a month.
On that reading, the next likely low zone sits around $65,000 to $68,000, lining up with a key monthly support level near $65,500. The same analysis expects more downside pressure over the next two to four weeks, with a possible bottoming window in the second half of November before conditions improve.
Not everyone is bearish. Crypto Lens, another market commentator, has argued that $65,000 could be the final “bear trap” — a last flush that shakes out weak hands before a rebound toward $110,000. The disagreement is the point: at these levels, the same chart supports two opposite trades, and the market has not yet picked one.
What pushed it over the edge
The slide has not come from a single trigger. It is the pile-up of several pressures at once, and they have been building for weeks.
The biggest is the Federal Reserve. October’s US inflation data, released on Tuesday, came in hotter than expected — headline inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.23% — and Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said hours earlier that a core reading of 0.3% or higher could prompt the Fed to consider a half-point rate rise at its 8–9 December meeting. October’s core print hit exactly that threshold. Traders now price an 85.5% chance of a quarter-point hike in December, with a smaller chance of a half-point move. Today’s US producer price data, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, is the next test: another hot number would strengthen the case for the larger hike.
Institutional money is still heading for the exit. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five straight sessions of net outflows totalling about $1.44 billion through 11 November, and November’s outflows are now around $1.88 billion. The selling has also hit leveraged traders hard: about $681 million in positions was liquidated in the past 24 hours, 88% of them long bets on rising prices, with Bitcoin longs accounting for roughly $325 million of the total.
Geopolitics and equities added to the pressure. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran rattled risk appetite on Thursday, and the sudden resignation of Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang knocked the AI leader’s shares and dragged US stocks lower — the Nasdaq fell 0.4% on Thursday. Crypto, which has traded in step with tech stocks for much of the year, did not escape.
The fear gauge says extreme
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which blends volatility, trading volume, social media and other signals into a single sentiment score, has fallen to 20 — firmly in “extreme fear” territory, down from 28 earlier in the week. It is the lowest reading of the current slide.
Extreme fear is not, by itself, a buy signal. But it does mark the moments when markets are most sensitive to news in either direction. A softer-than-expected producer price reading today, or a turn in ETF flows, could trigger a sharp relief rally — the same crowded positioning that amplified the fall would amplify the bounce. A hot PPI print, on the other hand, would hand the bears their next argument.
In other crypto news
Away from the price action, banks keep moving into crypto. Israel Discount Bank announced it will let individual customers buy, hold and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly inside its banking app from 26 November — the latest sign that traditional banks are treating crypto as a retail product rather than a fringe asset.
Regulators, meanwhile, are quietly opening doors. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule on 10 November letting the Nasdaq ISE options exchange list options on qualifying crypto exchange-traded products without seeking approval for each one, and the agency has backed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in a court fight over stock perpetual futures offered by Coinbase, Kalshi and Kraken-owned Bitnomial.
What to watch next
Today’s US producer price index, 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The number that decides whether bets on a half-point Fed hike grow — and whether the $70,000 line holds.
Whether $70,000 holds for Bitcoin. A clean break opens the way toward $68,000 and the $65,000–$65,700 zone analysts are watching. Holding it keeps the oversold-bounce case alive.
ETF flows. Five straight sessions of outflows preceded this week’s slide. A turn back to inflows would be the first sign institutional selling is easing.
The Fear & Greed Index. At 20, sentiment is at an extreme. Extremes do not last forever — but they can last longer than impatient traders expect.
Nobody can say with certainty where this correction ends. What the analysts agree on is narrower: the market is oversold, the levels below are well mapped, and the next big move will probably be decided by inflation data and ETF flows rather than by the chart alone. Until one of those turns, $70,000 is the line that matters.
This post is for information only and is not financial advice. Figures are as reported by BeInCrypto, KuCoin, BusinessToday, TradingView/Benzinga, FXStreet, CoinLab, CoinRoop, Uncle Winston, LiteFinance, Polymarket and ChainCatcher on 12–13 November 2026. Forecasts quoted are the views of the analysts named, not predictions by this publication. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile — do your own research before making investment decisions.
